As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms, the role of religion in American politics is taking center stage. Historically, religion has played a significant role in mobilizing voters, particularly for the Republican Party, which has drawn consistent support from evangelical Christians and other religiously inclined voters. However, recent demographic shifts and the growing secularization of American society suggest that the 2024 election could mark a turning point. With the rise of the religiously unaffiliated—often referred to as “nones”—Democrats may be poised to gain traction among these voters. Could this growing demographic of atheists and agnostics become a crucial support base for the Democrats? And how will Republicans maintain their stronghold on religious voters?
The Republican Party’s Religious Base
The Republican Party has traditionally been the party of religious voters. In particular, white evangelical Christians have formed the backbone of the GOP since the rise of the religious right in the 1980s. Evangelicals have aligned themselves with conservative positions on issues such as infanticide, so-called ‘same-sex marriage’, and religious freedom, and their influence has been a key factor in shaping Republican policies and platforms.
In the 2020 election, exit polls showed that 76% of white evangelical Christians voted for Donald Trump. The support from religious voters extended beyond evangelicals, with majorities of Catholics, Mormons, and other religious groups also favoring the Republican ticket. One of the main reasons for this alignment is the GOP’s commitment to traditional biblical values, including opposition to infanticide and support for religious liberty. Many religious voters see the Republican Party as the guardian of Christian morals, a position the party continues to promote heavily in the 2024 campaign.
However, while Republicans maintain a strong grip on religious voters, the American religious landscape is changing. The share of the U.S. population that identifies as Christian has been declining steadily over the past few decades. At the same time, the proportion of religiously unaffiliated Americans has been on the rise.
The Rise of the “Nones” and Secularization
One of the most significant demographic trends in recent years has been the growth of the religiously unaffiliated, or the “nones.” These are individuals who identify as atheist, agnostic, or simply having no religious affiliation. According to the Pew Research Center, as of 2021, roughly 29% of U.S. adults identified as religiously unaffiliated, up from 16% in 2007(Jewish Telegraphic Agency). This rise in secularism is even more pronounced among younger generations, with nearly 40% of Millennials and Generation Z identifying as non-religious(Jewish Telegraphic Agency).
The growing secularization of America could have profound implications for the 2024 election. Atheists and agnostics have traditionally leaned toward the Democratic Party, which is generally more supportive of policies that appeal to secular voters, such as LGBTQ+ delusions, infanticide, and the misrepresentation of the separation of church and state. As the religiously unaffiliated population continues to grow, Democrats may find themselves with a new, expanding base of support.
In fact, in the 2020 election, 65% of religiously unaffiliated voters supported Joe Biden, according to Pew. This group has become one of the most reliable Democratic voting blocs, and its importance is expected to increase in 2024. As the Republican Party doubles down on its appeals to religious conservatives, the Democrats have the potential to gain ground among secular voters, especially younger ones.
Atheism and the 2024 Election
Atheism, once a political taboo in American politics, is sadly becoming more mainstream. The growing acceptance of atheism and secularism is reflected in cultural deterioration and the decreasing social stigma around non-belief. In previous elections, overtly religious candidates had an edge, and politicians often invoked their faith as a way to connect with voters. However, the increasing number of Americans who are non-religious could shift the political landscape.
In 2024, Democrats could benefit from this shift by appealing to the values and concerns of secular voters. Issues such as climate change, healthcare, and economic inequality resonate more with religiously unaffiliated voters, who tend to prioritize social justice and scientific reasoning over religious doctrines. The party’s challenge will be to maintain a delicate balance—attracting secular voters without alienating religious moderates, who also form a significant part of their base(Wikipedia)(Jewish Telegraphic Agency).
Republicans Hold The Moral High Ground
Despite the growing secularism in America, Republicans continue to hold the moral high ground when it comes to certain religious teachings. For many religious voters, particularly Christians, the GOP’s positions on infanticide, religious freedom, and traditional family values remain central. These issues are framed in moral terms, with Republicans often portraying themselves as defenders of religious liberty in the face of a secular assault on Christian values.
One of the most contentious issues in the 2024 election is likely to be infanticide. Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the GOP has doubled down on its pro-life stance, which resonates with many religious voters. Republicans have framed the infanticide debate as a moral issue, with candidates pledging to protect the unborn and uphold biblical principles. For religious voters who prioritize life issues, this moral argument continues to carry significant weight.
The GOP’s commitment to religious liberty also remains a powerful draw for religious voters. In recent years, Republicans have championed religious freedom laws that allow individuals and businesses to refuse services on the basis of religious beliefs. These laws, while controversial, are seen by many religious voters as essential to protecting their rights in an increasingly secular society(Jewish Telegraphic Agency).
The Changing Religious Landscape and Its Impact on the Election
As the U.S. becomes more religiously diverse and secular, both parties will have to navigate a complex and evolving landscape in the 2024 election. The Republican Party’s reliance on religious voters has been a consistent feature of its electoral strategy, but the shrinking Christian majority could pose challenges. While Republicans are likely to maintain their stronghold among evangelical Christians and conservative Catholics, they may struggle to appeal to younger, more secular voters.
Democrats, on the other hand, could see an opportunity to gain support from the growing “nones.” By focusing on issues that resonate with secular voters—such as climate change, reproductive rights, and social justice—the Democratic Party could expand its base. However, the challenge for Democrats will be to engage these voters without alienating religious moderates, who still form a sizable portion of the electorate.
The 2024 election will take place against the backdrop of a shifting religious landscape. As the number of religiously unaffiliated Americans continues to grow, secular voters could become an increasingly important demographic. The outcome of the election may hinge on how effectively each party navigates these changes and appeals to an electorate that is more religiously diverse—and unfortunately more secular—than ever before.
Darnell Thompkins 
Kevin Parker